Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record-high in 2022. However, with forecasted sales of 25,921 in 2023, levels are still expected to be higher than the activity reported before the pandemic. Recent growth in migration and employment is expected to help offset the impact of higher lending rates, keeping annual sales activity higher than levels achieved throughout the 2015 to 2019 period.

Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record-high in 2022.

The growth in new listings in 2022 was not enough to offset the gains in sales and supply levels have remained low, especially for lower-priced product. The higher lending rates are also expected to weigh on listings growth in 2023 as it has become more challenging for a move up buyer. While improved starts are expected to help support supply growth, thanks to the strong migration levels, supply levels are not expected to report significant gains.

The low starting point and limited upward pressure on supply in 2023 is expected to prevent any significant downward pressure on prices as demand normalizes. However, conditions are expected to vary depending on price range and property type. Higher-priced homes are expected to see some downward price pressure as that segment of the market is not experiencing the same supply constraints. Meanwhile, supply declines relative to sales for lower priced properties are expected to continue to support modest price growth. Declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains in the lower end of the market as total residential prices in Calgary are expected to stabilize in 2023.


While economic growth is expected to slow, forecasters are not calling for a recession in the province.

The aftermath of the pandemic, along with geopolitical issues impacting global energy markets, has left many countries facing challenges with inflation and rising interest rates. The persistent inflation in 2022 has triggered significant rate hikes from the bank of Canada this year, moving from 0.25 per cent at the start of the year to 4.25 per cent by the end of 2022. These recent shifts are expected to weigh on consumers and businesses in 2023 causing the Canadian economy to slip into a recession. However, given the tight labour market and persistent supply chain issues in some sectors of the economy, the recession in Canada is expected to be mild and short-lived. The strength in commodities is expected to cushion some of the economic impacts that higher rates will have in Alberta. While economic growth is expected to slow, forecasters are not calling for a recession in the province. At the same time, the strong flow of migrants to the province, along with job growth concentrated in generally higher-paid industries in Calgary is expected to offset some of the impacts that higher lending rates are having on the housing market.


As the market transitions away from the pandemic/low-interest rate fuelled growth, we are expecting to have divergent trends in the market based on property type and price range. Moreover, thanks to record high sales achieved early in 2022, the year-over-year adjustments, especially early in 2023, will be far higher than the changes expected over the second half of 2023. The largest risk to the forecast this year is centered around home prices.

Supply gains have mostly occurred in the higher price ranges, while supply levels remain low compared to demand for lower priced homes. So while total residential prices are expected to be stable in 2023, buyers and sellers are likely to experience different price movements based on property type, price range and location.

Interprovincial migrants seeking home ownership may be less sensitive to rates should they be coming from a higher priced market supporting stronger then expected demand. Supply levels remain low across all property types resulting in stronger then expected price gains.

Uncertainty surrounding environmental and energy sector policy and investment impacting future growth prospects. Should inflation pressure not ease enough requiring further rate gains, we could see a higher then expected pullback in sales relative to supply levels causing downward price adjustments.



The pandemic and ultra-low lending rates contributed to a housing boom across the country. However, the price gains in Alberta were not as strong as in other parts of the country as we entered the pandemic with a market that favoured the buyer. Before the pandemic, Alberta’s economy was struggling as the drop in energy prices in 2014 resulted in significant job loss, a loss of migrants and an economic contraction. By the end of 2019, home prices in Calgary and Edmonton were lower than the levels reported in 2014. Meanwhile, the country’s largest cities did not go through the same economic hardships and over the five-year period prices had risen significantly over this time. When the pandemic hit, those larger centres had less supply in their markets and the sudden growth in demand caused price gains that were significantly higher than what was seen in our cities. Calgary home prices only recovered in 2021, and while supply challenges compared to demand did result in strong gains in 2022, over the pandemic period price growth was still half of what was seen in other centres. Recent rate gains have had more of an impact on home sales in Toronto and Vancouver. Slowing sales in these markets have impacted the national numbers prompting many to forecast price declines in Canada. It is also important to note that even with the forecasted price declines expected in the larger markets in the country, those declines are not expected to erase all the gains that occurred through the pandemic. While Calgary and Edmonton are not immune to the impacts of inflation and higher lending rates, they have not experienced the same level of price gains and are not expected to go through the same level of declines. Furthermore, thanks to higher commodity prices, a shift in interprovincial migration and relative affordability, Alberta is not expected to face the adjustments as other parts of the country.


Easing inflationary pressure is expected in 2023 which should prevent any significant rate gains in 2023. While the depth and duration of a national recession can impact both lending rates and inflation, the Bank of Canada is not expected to lower overnight target rates until 2024. However, we could see narrowing spread on mortgage lending rates before the end of 2023.

The Bank of Canada is not expected to lower overnight target rates until 2024.


Over the first three quarters of 2022, Alberta saw a surge in both international and interprovincial migration contributing to tighter rental markets and ownership demand. Continued economic growth and relative affordability is expected to support elevated migration levels well into 2023. Much of the interprovincial migration has been driven by people moving from Ontario and BC to Alberta. The recent shift in migration is expected to help offset the impact of higher lending rates and support a housing market that is stronger than per-COVID levels.


Calgary has seen the largest gain in employment in the province as it benefited not only from job growth related to the removal of COVID restrictions but also reported strong gains in professional, scientific, and technical jobs. Job growth is expected to slow in 2023 to one per cent. However, previous gains in professional jobs and further gains in the sectors such as healthcare should continue to support a relatively stronger housing market.

2023 CALGARY FORECAST Employment Growth: 1% Unemployment Rate: 5.8%

Job growth is expected to slow in 2023 to one per cent.


Calgary has not faced supply challenges for some time, but resale inventories ended in 2022 at the lowest levels seen since the pre-financial crisis in 2005. While some of the supply challenges are expected to be addressed by the new home sector, there is no indication that current construction levels relative to the population size will create a scenario where we will see too much supply come onto the market. This is especially the case with apartment-style products, where nearly half of the total starts this year are intended for the rental market. At the same time, new supply in the detached market tends to be at a higher price point providing limited supply relief for lower priced detached homes. The larger concern is that the supply levels remain exceptionally low relative to demand which could prevent home prices from stabilizing this year.

Some of the supply challenges are expected to be addressed by the new home market.


In 2022, sales activity was expected to be strong in the spring and slower in the second half of the year following rate gains. What was unexpected was the record high levels of sales achieved earlier in the year, resulting in a record year for sales. The anticipated rise in lending rates caused a surge in sales over the first quarter of 2022. Conditions in the city started to shift by June after the third consecutive rate gain and steep price gains caused sales to slow in the detached sector. Thanks to strong growth for row and apartment properties, city wide sales reached record levels in 2022. At the same time, the growth in new listings in 2022 was not enough to offset the gains in sales and supply levels have remained low, especially for lower-priced product. Prices rose by over 14 per cent from the end of 2021 to the peak in May 2022, as sales growth far exceeded the additions to supply. From the peak in May to the end of 2022 prices declined, but not enough to offset the earlier gains as annual benchmark prices rose by 12 per cent.

Prices rose by over 14 per cent from the end of 2021 to the peak in May 2022, as sales growth far exceeded the additions to supply.


Detached home sales saw a steep rise early in 2022 with significant pullbacks later in the year. The main difference is the declines later in the year offset earlier gains and annual sales fell by seven per cent. While higher lending rates did impact sales activity, the decline was driven by easing sales in the lower price ranges. The sharp decline in new listings for homes priced below $500,000 provided limited options for potential purchasers looking for affordable detached homes restricting the sales in those ranges. While annual sales did grow in the higher price points by the end of the year, further rate gains did dampen activity in the upper price ranges as well. While conditions were tight across all price ranges throughout the spring, supply gains later in the year were limited to the upper price ranges resulting in divergent conditions that were dependent on price. By the end of 2022, the result was persistent sellers’ market conditions for lower-price detached homes and balanced conditions in the upper price ranges. Overall recent price adjustments did not offset the earlier gains and annual prices remained 14 per cent higher than 2021. As we move into 2023. we anticipate that supply levels will remain relatively low for affordable product as higher lending rates will prevent more move-up opportunities for some buyers and prevent sales growth in this category. At the same time, much of the new construction tends to be targeted at the higher price ranges limiting the options for consumers in the lower price ranges. However, supply levels are expected to rise in the higher price ranges relative to demand which will cause some downward pressure on home prices outweighing any gains that may still be occurring in the lower price ranges. Overall, detached home prices are expected to ease by less than two per cent.


Earlier gains were offset by pullbacks later in the year, leaving annual sales just slightly below last year’s record level. While sales did ease in 2022, some of this was related to a significant drop in new listings leaving limited choice for prospective buyers looking for more affordable product. Overall, the months of supply did improve in the later part of the year but remained low relative to historical levels. The persistently tight conditions did support annual benchmark price gains of 12 per cent. As we move into 2023, sales activity is expected to ease relative to the high levels achieved over the past two years but remain stronger than activity reported before the pandemic as purchasers continue to seek out more affordable options in the market. At the same time, additional supply options coming from the new home market will add choice to the market. Supply gains are expected to help support more balanced conditions and take some of the pressure off prices, which are expected to stabilize in 2023.


With a shift toward more affordable housing options, row sale activity hit a new record high in 2022. Earlier in the year, new listing growth helped support stronger sales. However, like other property types, pullbacks in new listings occurred in the later part of the year, causing inventory levels to drop to some of the lowest levels seen in nearly a decade. The persistently tight market conditions supported an annual price gain of nearly 15 per cent. Higher lending rates will continue to draw purchasers to this segment of the market, but supply levels will likely remain relatively low in 2023 compared to sales, preventing any significant adjustment in prices. While we do not anticipate prices to ease in this sector, the pace of growth is expected to slow to under one per cent.


Shifts in the apartment condominium sector took longer than other property types as this segment has struggled with excess supply for many years. In 2022, sales activity was higher than the previous year in every month, contributing to a new record-high year for sales. Demand was partly driven by those looking for affordable options in the housing market. At the same time. rising rental rates are also thought to have increased condominium ownership demand from investors. The surge in sales in 2022 was only possible due to the level of new listings available for this property class. While the growth in new listings helped support the sales, the growth in sales outstripped the addition of new listings and inventories eased as did the months of supply. The tighter market conditions supported price growth, as the annual benchmark price rose by nearly nine per cent in 2022. Rising prices, combined with higher lending rates, are expected to cool sales activity in 2023. However, the relative affordability of apartment condominiums and rising rental rates are expected to keep ownership sales for apartment condominiums above long-term trends. While some supply relief is likely to come through the new home market, it still will take several months before the market shifts into more balanced territory. While there could still be some price adjustments, overall benchmark prices are expected to start to stabilize this year, supporting a modest annual growth of one per cent.